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The Global Assessment of Risk (GAR) report is a biennial review and analysis of natural hazards published by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). The report implements the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns and trends and progress in disaster risk reduction and provides strategic policy guidance to increase resilience and reduce risk. The HFA aims to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015 by building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters and the 2015-2025 HFA policy is currently in draft. The GAR is a 4 year programme to evaluate risk and identify global challenges produced in collaboration and consultation with a wide range of stakeholders. GAR aims to help focus international attention and consolidate political and economic support to address disaster risk reduction.

UN ISDR is the lead organisation for global governance of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and so has great influence on policy development, international collaboration among nations and decision-making on priorities and actions by nations. UN ISDR and GAR reports are also highly influential among NGOs, other international agencies (e.g. the World Bank, the European Space Agency) and the private sector.

GVM and IAVCEI have been jointly commissioned by UNISDR to produce the volcano chapter for the GAR15 study. Volcanoes have not been considered in previous GAR reports so this is a unique opportunity for the international volcanological community to make a broad global assessment of volcanism in the context of DRR and to present the state-of-the art in volcanic hazards and risk assessment. The volcano model will complement other models in the report on: earthquakes, floods, cyclones and extreme weather, tsunamis, exposure and risk. GAR13 was launched in May 2013. It looks at how public regulation and private investment shape disaster risk. GAR15 will be launched at the World Disaster Programme meeting in 2015 and will develop “Ready to use risk data”. The GAR15 task force has been tasked to produce the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk by April 2014.

We are building on the methodology employed in the World Bank funded GFDRR report (Aspinall et al. 2011) to evaluate volcanic risk and are working in collaboration with volcanologists worldwide to build this model. This methodology is being modified by a GVM task force on volcanic indices. Volcano data from key databases, such as the database of Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and VOGRIPA, will be used to provide a synoptic assessment of global volcanism from a hazard and risk perspective.

The products of the GAR15 study will include a general synoptic document for a non-technical readership, and a more detailed technical report which gives the evidence that supports the global assessment, including: global, regional or local analysis on volcanoes and volcanic hazards, case studies that are through to be illustrative of key issues, good practice or methodologies in hazard and risk assessment. References to key publications and authoritative web sites, specialised background papers and data collation forming individual country profiles will also be presented and digitally accessible.

Multiple GVM partners are combining their resources and expertise for the study, which will be completed by April 2014 for incorporation into the GAR15 publication by UNISDR. The GAR15 Steering Committee has been formed with representatives of each partner institution and with Steve Sparks (University of Bristol) and Sue Loughlin (BGS) responsible for co-ordinating the input of the committee.


Steve Sparks

Sue Loughlin


  • Supriyati Andreastuti, CVGHM, Indonesia
  • Ben Andrews, Smithsonian Institution
  • Sara Barsotti, IMO, Iceland
  • Sara Bazin, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
  • Adele Bear-Crozier, Geoscience Australia
  • Sarah Brown, University of Bristol
  • Eliza Calder, University of Edinburgh
  • Marta Calvache, INGEOMINAS, Colombia
  • Liz Cottrell, Smithsonian Institution
  • Hugo Delgado, UNAM
  • Susanna Jenkins, University of Bristol
  • Gill Jolly, GNS Science
  • Jean-Christophe Komorowski, IPGP, France
  • Elias Lewi, IGSSA, Addis Ababa University
  • Sue Loughlin, British Geological Survey
  • Charles Mandeville, USGS
  • Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Italy
  • Steve McNutt, University of Alaska
  • Victoria Miller, Geoscience Australia
  • Farrokh Nadim, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
  • Tina Neal, USGS
  • Chris Newhall, Earth Observatory of Singapore
  • Paolo Papale, INGV, Italy
  • Sally Potter, GNS Science
  • Patricio Ramon, Geophysical Institute of Ecuador
  • Antonius Ratdomopurbo, WOVOdat, Earth Observatory of Singapore
  • Richie Robertson, Seismic Research Centre, University of the West Indies
  • Renato Solidum, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
  • Steve Sparks, University of Bristol
  • Shinji Takarada, Geological Survey of Japan
  • Greg Valentine, University at Buffalo
  • Charlotte Vye-Brown, British Geological Survey

For further information please see:

UNISDR website

GAR project websites

Any individual or institution that would like to know more about the GAR15 study and indeed who might be able to contribute is welcome to contact Sarah Brown (

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