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The following reports have been prepared by members of the GVM project and relate to the risk management of volcanic unrest:

(NB: where no pdf file is listed, copyright prevents inclusion on this page)

PubVolc ( has been running since 2008 and aims to help all volcanologists to access literature. It works as a database, but also allows interested parties to contact authors to request a reprint directly.

Downloadable Documents in pdf format:


 1 Brown S K., Crosweller H S., Sparks R S J., Cottrell E., Deligne N I., Guerrero N O.Hobbs, Kiyosugi K., LoughlinS C., Siebert L. and Takarada S. Characterisation of the Quaternary eruption record: analysis of the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database


1 Eichelberger, J., Marzocchi, W., Papale, P. (2012) Identifying Best Practices in short-term eruption forecasting. EOS, 93: 5.
2 Marzocchi W., Bebbington M.S. (2012). Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bull. Volcanol., doi: 10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x probabilistic forecasting pdf file
3 Jenkins S, Magill C, McAneney J, Blong R (2012) Regional ash fall hazard I: A probabilistic assessment methodology. Bulletin of Volcanology 74(7):1699-1712
4 Jenkins S, McAneney J, Magill C, Blong R (2012) Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications. Bulletin of Volcanology 74(7):1713-1727
5 Hillman, S.E., Horwell, C.J., Densmore, A., Damby, D.E., Fubini, B., Ishimine, Y., Tomatis, M., 2012. Sakurajima volcano: a physico-chemical study of the health consequences of long-term exposure to volcanic ash. Bulletin of Volcanology In Press.
6 Marzocchi W., Newhall C., Woo G., (2012) The Scientific Management of Volcanic Crises. Journal of Volcanology & Geothermal Research 247-248 (2012) 181-189. Elsevier B.V. The Scientific Management of Volcanic Crises
7 H. Sian Crosweller, Baneet Arora, Sarah K. Brown, Elizabeth Cottrell, Natalia I. Deligne, Natlie Ortiz Guerrero, Laura Hobbs, Koji Kiyosugi, Susan C. Loughlin, Jonathan Lowndes, Martin Nayembil, Lee Siebert, R. Stephen J. Sparks, Shinji Takarada, Edward Venzke. Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE) Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions
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1 Valentine GA, Doronzo DM, Dellino P, de Tullio MD (2011) Effects of volcano profile on dilute pyroclastic density currents: numerical simulations. Geology 39: 947-950, doi: 10.1130/G31936.1Numerical modeling of the effect of volcano shapes on pyroclastic density currents, including their potential for damage.
2 Longo A., Papale P., Vassalli M., Saccorotti G., Montagna C.P., Cassioli A., Giudice D., Boschi E. (2011) Magma convention and mixing dynamics as a source of Ultra-Long-Period oscillations. Bull. Volcanol., doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0570-0.
3 GFDRR, Volcano Risk Study, Volcano Hazard and Exposure in GFDRR Priority Countries and Risk Mitigation Measures; NGI report 20100806 ,
3 May 2011The GFDRR report is a collaborative work between the University of Bristol and NGI and presents the results of a pilot study on the risk posed by volcanoes in the priority countries of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) of the World Bank. The aim of the study was to establish science-based evidence for better integration of volcanic risks in national Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) programmes in priority countries, as well as regional cooperation in DRR programmes for all countries supported under GFDRR.
GFDRR Report on the risk posed by volcanoes.
4 Valentine GA, Shufelt NL, Hintz ARL (2011) Models of maar volcanoes, Lunar Crater (Nevada, USA). Bulletin of Volcanology 73: 753-765, doi:10.1007/s00445-011-0451-6An assessment of explosive energy associated with maar volcanoes, based upon crater dimensions and characteristics of tephras.
5 Webley, P. W., Dean, K., Peterson, R., Steffke, A., Harrild, M., and Groves, J., (2011). Dispersion Modelling of Volcanic Ash Clouds: North Pacific Eruptions, the past 40 years: 1970 – 2010. Natural Hazards. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0053-9Over the last 40 years, there have been numerous volcanic eruptions across the North Pacific (NOPAC) region that posed a potential threat to both local communities and transcontinental aircraft. The Puff volcanic ash transport and dispersion model, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, was used to illustrate the impact that these volcanic ash clouds have made across the NOPAC and entire Polar region over the past 40 years. Nearly, 400 separate ash clouds were analyzed that were either reported or detected to have reached above 6 km (20,000 ft) above sea level, an average of one ash cloud every 1.25 months. This study showed the vast number of events that have impacted this Polar region and how tracking them is useful for hazard mitigation.Weblink :
6 Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S. and Puempel, H. 2011c. Future developments in modelling and monitoring volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation. Bulletin of Volcanology 74(1), 1-10.
7 Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S. and Puempel, H. 2011a Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation Workshop – Consensual Document.
8 Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S. and Puempel, H. 2011b. Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation Workshop – Model Benchmark Document.
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1 Recurrence Rates of Large Explosive Volcanic Eruptions;
N. I. Deligne,
S. G. Coles, and R. S. J. Sparks Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 115, B06203, doi:10.1029/2009JB006554, 2010
Journal of Geophysical Research
2 Horwell, C.J., Stannett, G.W., Andronico, D., Bertagnini, A., Fenoglio, I., Fubini, B., Le Blond, J.S., Williamson, B.J., 2010b. A physico-chemical assessment of the health hazard of Mt. Vesuvius volcanic ash. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 191, 222-232.
3 Horwell, C.J., Le Blond, J.S., Michnowicz, S.A.K., Cressey, G., 2010a. Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: Evolution of ash hazard. Bulletin of Volcanology 72, 249-253.
4 Le Blond, J.S., Horwell, C.J., Baxter, P.J., Michnowicz, S.A.K., Tomatis, M., Fubini, B., Delmelle, P., Dunster, C., Patia, H., 2010. Mineralogical analyses and in vitro screening tests for the rapid evaluation of the health hazard of volcanic ash at Rabaul volcano, Papua New Guinea. Bulletin of Volcanology 72, 1077-1092.
5 McNutt, S.R. and E.R. Williams, Volcanic Lightning: Global observations and constraints on source mechanisms. Bull. Volcanol., v. 72, no. 10, p. 115 3, doi: 10.1007/s00445-010-0393-4, 2010
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1 Valentine GA, Perry FV (2009) Volcanic risk assessment at Yucca Mountain, NV, USA: integration of geophysics, geology, and modeling. In: Volcanism, Tectonism, and Siting Nuclear Facilities (Connor C, Connor L, Chapman N, eds), Cambridge University Press, p. 452-480.This chapter is a comprehensive summary of site characterization, hazard, and consequences analysis for potential volcanic disruption of the proposed radioactive waste facility at Yucca Mountain.
2 Webley, P.W., Dean, K., Bailey, J.E., Dehn, J. and Peterson, R., (2009). Volcanic Ash Modeling for North Pacific Volcanoes Automated Operational Monitoring and Virtual Globes. Natural Hazards: SI Aviation Hazards from Volcanoes, 51 (2), 345 – 361. doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9246-2There are over 100 active volcanoes in the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, most of which are located in sparsely populated areas. Dispersion models play an important role in forecasting the movement of volcanic ash clouds by complementing both remote sensing data and visual observations from the ground and aircraft. Puff is a three-dimensional dispersion model, primarily designed for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory and other agencies. Since early 2007, the model is in an automated mode to predict the movement of airborne volcanic ash at multiple elevated alert status volcanoes worldwide to provide immediate information when an eruption occurs. Here, we show operational Puff predictions in two and three-dimensions in Google Earth®, both as iso-surfaces and particles, and study past eruptions to illustrate the capabilities that the Virtual Globes can provide.Weblink:
3 Mastin, L.G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P. W., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Denlinger, R., Durant, A., Ewert, J. W., Gardner, C. A., Holliday, A. C., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D., Siebert, L., Stunder, B., Swanson, G., Tupper, A., Volentik, A. and Waythomas, C. F., (2009). A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to model of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research: Special Issue on Volcanic Ash Clouds, eds. Larry Mastin and Peter Webley. 186 (1 – 2), 10 – 21.doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.008During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m63 of erupted debris finer than about 4ϕ or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world’s ∼ 1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.Weblink:
4 Webley, P.W. and Mastin, L. G., (2009). Improved Prediction and tracking of Volcanic Ash clouds. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research: Special Issue on Volcanic Ash Clouds, eds. Larry Mastin and Peter Webley. 186 (1 – 2), 1-9.doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.10.022In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality.Weblink:
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1 Papale, P., Longo, A. (2008) Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.05.012.
2 Favalli, M., Chirico, G.D., Papale, P., Pareschi, M.T., Boschi, E. (2008) Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 1. Model calibration and hazard mapping. Bull. Volcanol., doi: 10.1007/s00445-008-0233-y.
3 Chirico, G.D., Favalli, M., Papale, P., Boschi, E., Pareschi, M.T., Mamou-Mani, A. (2008) Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C. 2. Hazard reduction in urban areas. Bull. Volcanol., doi: 10.1007/s00445-008-0232-z.
4 McNutt, S.R. and Nishimura, T., Volcanic Tremor During Eruptions: Temporal Characteristics, Scaling and Estimates of Vent Radius, J. Volcanol. Geot herm. Res., v. 178, p. 10-18, 2008.
5 Valentine GA, Gregg TKP (2008) Continental basaltic volcanoes – processes and problems. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 177, 857-873, doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.050A summary of current knowledge regarding explosive styles and controls on location of basaltic volcanoes in continental interiors.
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1 Carn, S. A., N. A. Krotkov, K. Yang, R. M. Hoff, A. J. Prata, A. J. Krueger, S. C. Loughlin, P. F. Levelt 2007. Extended Observations of Volcanic SO2 and Sulfate Aerosol in the Stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 7, 2857-2871. Loughlin, S.C., Baxter, P.J., Aspinall, W.P., Darroux, B., Harford, C.L., Miller, A.D. 2002. Eyewitness accounts of the 25 June 1997 pyroclastic flows at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and implications for disaster mitigation. In: Druitt. T.H. and Kokelaar B.P (Eds). ‘The eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999′. Geological Society of London, Memoirs, 21, 211-230.
2 Horwell, C.J., 2007. Grain size analysis of volcanic ash for the rapid assessment of respiratory health hazard. J. Environ. Monitor. 9, 1107-1115.
3 Marzocchi W., Neri A., Newhall C.G., Papale P. (2007) Probabilistic volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Eos Trans. AGU, 88(32), 318.
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Horwell, C.J., Baxter, P.J., 2006. The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation. Bulletin of Volcanology 69, 1-24.
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Horwell, C.J., Sparks, R.S.J., Brewer, T.S., Llewellin, E.W., Williamson, B.J., 2003. The characterisation of respirable volcanic ash from the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, with implications for health hazard. Bulletin of Volcanology 65, 346-362.
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McNutt, S.R., Seismic monitoring of volcanoes: A review of the state-of-the-art and recent trends. In: Scarpa, R. and R. Tilling (eds.), Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards, Chapter 3, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 99-146, 1996.


McNutt, S.R., Volcanic Tremor Amplitude Correlated with Eruption Explosivity and its Potential Use in Determining Ash Hazards to Aviation. U.S.G.S. Prof. Paper, 2047, 377-385, 1994.


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